What a difference a few weeks can make. If the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos were meeting after the first four weeks of the season, Patrick Mahomes might have walked into Mile High Stadium as a 13-point favorite. But the then-undefeated Chiefs have not won a game since, while the then-winless Broncos have not lost since. An entire digit might have been shaved off that expected spread.
And now is your chance to cash in on that before the Chiefs inevitably figure things out. Today’s top picks are decidedly pro-Kansas City. All lines via William Hill.
- Chiefs -3
The most points that the Denver Broncos have scored in a game this season is 24. The fewest points that the Chiefs have ever scored in a game started by both Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill is … 24. Even in their compromised state, Mahomes and Hill by default put up enough points to beat the Broncos. If they can truly right the ship in this game, a fair expectation given the weight of a potential third loss in a row, they should top 24 relatively easily. It’s just hard to envision Denver matching points with the Kansas City, or the Chiefs stooping low enough on offense for the Broncos to keep up.
Senior analyst Larry Hartstein is a sizzling 24-11 with his picks against the spread this season, and he’s released another strong play for Kansas City vs. Denver on Thursday night. Check out Hartstein’s pick only at SportsLine.
- Chiefs-Broncos: Under 49
The Chiefs are the pick to win this game, but by their standards, it should play out as a relatively low-scoring affair. The Broncos want to run the ball, and Kansas City will enable that. The Chiefs have allowed a staggering 5.2 yards per carry this season, and with Chris Jones out, that doesn’t figure to change tonight. A run-heavy game will keep the clock moving, and while Kansas City should be able to put enough points on the board to win, it’s hard to envision them exploding for 40 given the time constraints they’ll play under.
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- Travis Kelce Over 6.5 Receptions
The Broncos have played good defense this season, but not against tight ends. In six games, they’ve allowed 72 catches for six touchdowns and over 1,000 yards to the position. That’s not a great place to be against Kelce, who has caught at least six passes in every game he’s played against Denver since 2015. If this game does turn into a low-scoring slog, expect Mahomes to lean on Kelce for easy completions.
Pro DFS player Mike McClure absolutely rolled through the 2018 NFL season, cashing in the top 5 percent of tournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings multiple times. He’s been hot again this season, so you’ll want to check out his Week 7 optimal lineups over at SportsLine.
When and where is the game?
The Denver Broncos host the Kansas City Chiefs at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado, on Thursday, October 17.
Kick-off is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET.