Patrick Mahomes won his first NFL start at Mile High to close out the 2017 regular season. Now, he’ll return as the Kansas City Chiefs visit the Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football. Kansas City has not lost in Denver since 2014 and is trying to rebound from its second straight loss after starting 4-0. Mahomes threw for 273 yards and two touchdowns despite an ankle injury, but Houston pulled out a 31-24 victory. Meanwhile at Mile High, Denver won its second straight game with a dominant showing to shut out the Titans, 16-0, and send quarterback Marcus Mariota to the bench. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET, Mahomes and company are three-point favorites in the latest Chiefs vs. Broncos odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 49, off one from the opener. Before placing any Broncos vs. Chiefs picks, you should see the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 7 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 24-15 run that dates back to last season. It’s also on an incredible 86-58 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. And in Week 6, it nailed the Patriots (-17) covering a large spread against the Giants and the Seahawks (+1) winning straight-up as underdogs against the Browns.
The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has simulated Chiefs vs. Broncos 10,000 times. We can tell you it’s leaning over, but it also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
The model knows Mahomes is 3-0 against Denver, and the Chiefs have not scored fewer than 27 points in those meetings. He had 303 yards and four touchdown passes against them in a 30-23 victory in their last meeting, in Week 8 of last season. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill is coming off an eye-popping game in his return from a shoulder injury, with four catches for 80 yards and two touchdowns in the loss to Houston.
Mahomes has plenty of other weapons available, including All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce, who leads the team with 32 catches for 497 yards. Mecole Hardman filled in well while Hill recovered from a broken collarbone and has 16 catches for 291 yards, while Demarcus Robinson, with 17 catches for 281 yards, also has flashed big-play ability.
But just because Kansas City can put up points doesn’t mean it will cover the Chiefs vs. Broncos spread on Thursday Night Football.
The Broncos’ defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown in nine quarters after allowing only a punt return TD in a 20-13 win against the Chargers. Denver rattled two quarterbacks last time out, driving Titans starter Marcus Mariota from the game with three sacks and two interceptions, then beating up on Ryan Tannehill, sacking him four times and intercepting him once. The Broncos allowed 204 total yards, including just 39 on the ground. They allow just 17.7 points per game.
Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco has struggled this season, but he has plenty of weapons at his disposal. Receiver Courtland Sutton has emerged as a reliable receiver with 30 catches for 477 yards and three touchdowns. Running backs Phillip Lindsay (19 catches for 147 yards) and Royce Freeman (21-145) also are involved in the passing game and have combined to rush for 681 yards.
When and where is the game?
The Denver Broncos host the Kansas City Chiefs at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado, on Thursday, October 17.
Kick-off is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET.
The game will be nationally broadcast by the NFL Network, FOX Sports and Amazon Prime Video.
A live stream will be available via NFL Network online and on connected devices, as well as Amazon Prime Video and FOX Sports’ digital platforms.
The Chiefs are on a two-game running streak after losing to the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texas at home in consecutive weeks, while the Broncos have won the last two straight after losing their first four games.
The Chiefs lead the all-time series 63-54 and have won the last seven meetings between the two. Last season, Kansas won 27-23 in Denver at the beginning of October and backed up the result with a 30-23 at home less than four weeks later.
According to Oddschecker, the Chiefs are 3.5-point favorite and are even odds to win and cover the spread, while the Broncos are 77/50 underdogs. The over/under bar in terms of points scored is set at 49.