The Washington Nationals will look to push the Houston Astros to the brink of elimination when they meet in Game 3 of the 2019 World Series. The Nationals (93-69), who lead the best-of-seven series 2-0, are 10-2 in the postseason, while the Astros (107-55) posted the best record in baseball during the regular season. Friday’s first pitch is set for 8:07 p.m. ET from Nationals Park, and Houston is 2-3 on the road in the postseason. The latest Astros vs. Nationals odds show Houston favored at -141 on the money line (risk $141 to win $100), while the over-under for total runs scored is eight. Before making any Nationals vs. Astros picks of your own, look at the MLB predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, entered the 2019 World Series up over $800 for $100 players on top-rated MLB picks this season. The model was especially strong on top-rated money line picks this season, entering the World Series on a profitable 158-130 run. Anyone who has been following it is way up.
Now, the model has dialed in on Nationals vs. Astros. We can tell you it’s leaning over eight runs, and it also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
The model knows the Astros will send right-hander Zack Greinke (18-5, 2.93 ERA) to the mound. Despite being 0-2 in the postseason, Greinke has pitched well in his last two starts, allowing four earned runs and four walks in 10 1/3 innings, striking out 11. He had a 3.48 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in the American League Championship Series against the New York Yankees.
Houston, which has had five straight winning seasons, is 506-349, including 25-20 in the playoffs, under fifth-year manager A.J. Hinch, winning the 2017 World Series in seven games over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Astros have had 12 winning seasons since 2000 and 26 in their 58-year history.
Here’s what you need to know:
Who: Astros vs. Nationals
What: World Series, Game 3
When: Friday Oct. 25, 2019
Where: Nationals Park
Time: 8:07 p.m.
Only three of the past 25 teams to drop the first two games at home under the 2-3-2 format have rallied to take the title. The last to do it was the 1996 New York Yankees against Atlanta.
The Astros led the majors with 107 victories and now need to win two of three to merely send the matchup back to Houston.
“You can’t dwell on two games not putting everything together. Something goes our way, one ball goes our way, one line drive finds a gap instead of going at somebody, and everything changes,” Verlander said.
“Things didn’t go our way,” he said. “We don’t have time to feel bad about ourselves. Reset and come into an environment that we know is going to be pretty crazy and be ready to play baseball like we know we can.”
Fact is, the Nationals know what they can do, too. They’ve won eight in a row this postseason and 18 of 20 overall dating to the stretch run.
Not bad for a team that clearly remembers when it was 19-31 and things didn’t look too promising.
Of course, that was May. This is October.
Washington opened the game with two runs in the first after third baseman Anthony Rendon doubled home Adam Eaton and Trea Turner. Astros slugger Alex Bregman answered with a two-run home run in the bottom of the inning to tie the game at two runs apiece.
Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg battled Astros ace Justin Verlander for six innings until Kurt Suzuki broke open the game in the seventh. The veteran catcher blasted a solo homer in what turned into a six-run inning following three walks, three singles and multiple defensive lapses by the Astros.
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The Nationals added three more runs in the top of the eighth on a two-run homer by Eaton and an RBI single from Asdrubal Cabrera. Michael Taylor belted a solo shot to left field in the ninth to boost the Astros’ lead to 12-2.
Houston scored one run in the final inning on a solo home run by Martin Maldonado.
Strasburg allowed two earned runs on seven hits in six innings against the Astros. He struck out seven and walked one. Verlander gave up four earned runs on seven hits, striking out six and walking three.
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Game 3 is scheduled for Friday night when Anibal Sanchez takes the mound against the Astros’ Zack Greinke in the first World Series game in the nation’s capital since 1933.